Devising the Futures of Virtual Worlds in Latin America. A Foresight Workshop on the Metaverse (update)*

This work is part of a more comprehensive project whose background is described in this paper. On this occasion, we describe and synthesize the findings of an educational experience for 14 graduate students created to increase their Metaverse literacy and enhance their anticipatory and systems thinking skills.

CENTRO’s Futures Studies department created this educational experience based on Voros’ (2003) generic model of the foresight process, Hines and Bishop’s archetypes of futures (2015), Eden and Ackerman’s stakeholder analysis (2011), and Mathew Ball’s (2015) Metaverse concept. All these elements were combined in a 16-hour online course, split into four sessions between May and June 2022.

The main findings of the experience were the following:

• As a result of this experience, participants understood the difference between Metaverse, virtual world, extended reality, virtual reality, and augmented reality, among other key concepts.
• As a result of this experience, participants could learn about and implement a foresight process in three of its four phases (inputs, prospective analysis, and outputs), enunciating possible future scenarios for the Metaverse in Latin America.
• As a result of this experience, participants were able to elucidate different speculative design objects (souvenirs from the future) that could be prototyped later.

Research questions

1. What is the Metaverse, origin, constituent components, key players, and scope in Mexico and Latam?
2. Considering the possible scope of Extended Reality (XR) in my professional system, what long-term scenarios can we visualize?
3. What speculative design solutions can we devise to address those long-term problems identified in each ecosystem?

Workshop Goals

1. Know a generic foresight model and understand its scope to envision alternative futures.
2. Applying an input-based foresight and speculative design model to envision alternative local futures that involve XR technologies
3. Sketching speculative design pieces involving XR technologies to solve specific problems.

Workshop Sequence

• Session 1. System analysis, stakeholders, historical background, and resources.
• Session 2. Devising 10-year alternative scenarios (continuation, collapse, new equilibrium, transformation) based on step 1, identifying ethical dilemmas, and formulating a personal position
• Session 3. Souvenirs from the future sketching
• Sesión 4. Mentoring. AR/VR Modeling

Conceptual framework

According to Mathew Ball, the Metaverse is “a massively scaled and interoperable network of real-time rendered 3D virtual worlds that can be experienced synchronously and persistently by an effectively unlimited number of users with an individual sense of presence, and with continuity of data, such as identity, history, entitlements, objects, communications, and payments” (Ball, 2022, 43).

This definition provides some valuable insights. First, the Metaverse is not a place but a project in development. This initiative draws on, among other resources, Web 3.0, computational capacity, extended reality, the Internet of Things, electronic means of payment, and cloud computing.

Second, interoperability is one of the most critical challenges in the Metaverse since, in the terms explained by Mathew Ball himself, a digital wearable purchased in Descentraland is not usable in Second Life, for example. The possibility of a unified and interoperable Metaverse still faces many challenges, and the participation of creative industry professionals will be crucial.

To identify these potential opportunities (or threats) and generate the inputs for the foresight work, participants conducted a context analysis whose results were organized according to the domains of the STIRDEEPER model (Bradfield, Cairns, Wright, 2015), used in future studies as an advanced version of Francis Aguilar’s ETPS (1967).

STIRDEEPER is a fact-scanning acronym that includes the following domains: Society, Technology, Industry, Resources, Demographics, Economics, Environment, Politics, Energy, and Religion. The purpose of this framework is to facilitate the search for and systematization of facts to understand what has happened and what is happening in the system: which landmarks are evidencing the change, what is changing, who is causing the change, who is affected by the change, among other questions.

To organize the information, participants applied the principles of Zettelkasten (Ahrens, 2022), a note-taking technique spread by Niklas Luhman in the mid-20th century. This technique emphasizes traceability, transparency, modularity, systematization, and correlation of facts to identify patterns (Paniagua, 2022).

In this process stage, participants were asked to search for information on events related to technologies converging in the Metaverse (using the STIRDEEPER domains) in Latin America over the last twenty years. Emphasis was placed on consulting primary sources (books, scientific journals, popular magazines, conferences, reports, statistics, news, etc.) and verifying the reliability of those sources.

The 91 facts collected, organized, and related by the participants were synthesized on a Mural digital whiteboard (Figure 1).

Participants also applied Eden and Ackerman’s (2021) stakeholder analysis during the context analysis. This model considers four quadrants to segment the individuals or companies that produce or are affected by the change in a given system.

The 62 entities identified by the participants were mapped, as shown in Figure 2, according to their level of power and interest in the Latin American virtual worlds.

Based on the information gathered in the input stage (milestones and stakeholders), participants created four scenarios for 2032, according to Hynes and Bishop’s archetypes (2015): what if there are no significant surprises (continuation); what if everything goes wrong (collapse); what if the system is constricted to survive (constriction)); what if the system is rewritten (transformation).

To facilitate the elaboration of the scenarios, Dunagan and Candy’s (2016) Experiential futures ladder was adapted to cover the following dimensions:

1. What Latin America could be like in 2023?
2. What virtual worlds could be like in Latin America in 2023?
3. What might an ordinary life situation be like in 2023 in Latin America?
4. What an RX user might be like in Latin America in 2023?
5. What might an object or service that person use be like?

Participants were split into teams and developed the following scenarios: Based on the information gathered in the input stage (milestones and stakeholders), participants created four scenarios for 2032, according to Hynes and Bishop’s archetypes (2015): what if there are no significant surprises (continuation); what if everything goes wrong (collapse); what if the system is constricted to survive (constriction); what if the system is rewritten (transformation).

To facilitate the elaboration of the scenarios, Dunagan and Candy’s (2016) Experiential futures ladder was adapted to cover the following dimensions:

1. What Latin America could be like in 2023?
2. What virtual worlds could be like in Latin America in 2023?
3. What might an ordinary life situation be like in 2023 in Latin America?
4. What an RX user might be like in Latin America in 2023?
5. What might an object or service that person use be like?

Participants were split into teams and developed the following scenarios:

Continuation

Latam in 2023

In 2032, many Latin American economies have adopted cryptocurrencies as an official asset. However, the use of cash remains the most popular against digital assets. Companies are facing several class action lawsuits due to the side effects of using RX and other Metaverse technologies, which have generated mental and health problems in some users; several civil organizations promote the protection of the right to privacy and actively campaign inside and outside Metaverses. Work interaction through avatars is typical in technology-based companies. Progress has been made in the regional regulation of users’ margin of decision over their data (more effective protection and ownership). The digital gap has increased and is comparable to the social gap. There are virtual worlds for different social strata. The integration and interoperability of multimedia tools has improved.

Virtual Worlds

Virtual worlds in Latam are socially stratified: VIP, ordinary and lumpen, and the deep Metaverse. Some users live in the Metaverse with total integration and interoperability of devices to achieve total immersion; others access it through meta-coffee shops, where they can rent gadgets to interact. Regarding work, there is some dissatisfaction due to companies’ abuse, but there are ways to defend oneself and be compensated.

Ordinary Life

Pepe goes to a courtroom in Descentraland to attend a legal process; he sues his employer for forcing him to use Oculus despite his epilepsy. The case is solved in favor of the plaintiffs, who receive a vacation in a virtual world as compensation.

Ordinary User

Pepe is a young man who studies and works as a Metaverse data reader, which allows him to have free connection hours within the company.

Souvenir from the Future

Supplies to attend oral trials in the Metaverse.

Collapse

Latam in 2032

The evolution of the Metaverse in Latin America begins with a polarizing society and exacerbates radical ideas. Not all people have access to the Metaverse due to a lack of infrastructure and connectivity, generating an even wider socioeconomic gap than before the Metaverse boom and a more profound social discontent. The lack of digital regulation overwhelms the government capacities as Metaverse expands rapidly, in contrast with laws that keep slow and are based on analogical institutions. The climate crisis, which has increased due to the high carbon footprint of the data centers that support the Metaverse, causes the most affected regions to lack primary natural resources, creating market restrictions in producing and using raw materials and prioritizing crucial life-sustaining activities.

Virtual Worlds

Virtual worlds in Latin America have become places where insecurity and crime can flourish due to the authority’s lack of regulation, digital alphabetization, and certainty. It is nobody’s land. The virtual worlds became spaces where radical groups arise and gather; data robbery is quite common. It is related to other illicit activities in which influencers and powerful companies participate actively. Secure virtual worlds become more exclusive due to the scarcity of resources to produce XR equipment and haptic technology, increasing social exclusion.

Ordinary Life

Metaverses are becoming so immersive and intelligent that their algorithms can detect the exact moment and the ideal user target to plant ideas, radicalize positions, deceive, and polarize a society that is already dissatisfied and angry. Clandestine XR posts emerge in the metaverse at different points for entertainment and illegal business. The difficulty of these interactions and the reduction of users make goods and services return to individual creations, and non-industrialized processes and priorities become life maintenance.

Ordinary User

Pepe is susceptible to what is going on around him. He constantly lives in a bubble where he is fed only sources or news contributing to unknown authors’ points of view. He is a victim of the algorithm and how it controls his emotions about what is happening around him. He starts to move away from people who do not share the same opinions as he/she does and lives more with people in the metaverse who feed this part of his/her life. Some people want to take advantage. A group of Meta Mexico executives met in the Metaverse because of a curfew due to excessive solar radiation in Mexico City; they decided to close the service temporarily.

Souvenir from the Future

A VR set is used as a doorstop.

Constriction

Latam in 2032

While in some places there is no electricity or drinking water, in others the most important things are economy and technology. The federal governments allocate very little capital to subsidize the urbanization of cities and towns; public health takes a back seat to try to keep up with more developed countries through the colonization of the Metaverse.

Virtual Worlds

The Metaverse turned out to be a bubble with a lot of speculation. Ultimately, it affected Latin America, which was supposed to position it among the developed countries, and ended up affecting it. People trained for the Metaverse now must serve as cheap labor in more developed countries. The Metaverse seems to be the tool that can destabilize society, so the government takes on a more strategic and actionable role, managing the activities and design in the Metaverse and warning about the risks for the economy that now depends on foreign organizations.

Ordinary Life

Many companies conduct digital training. The sale of material goods takes advantage of the virtual worlds as a means of exposure, but not of sale, as these are pretty regulated by the risk involved. The only way to buy is through physical money, which is still the most reliable. An everyday transaction is the purchase and rental of material or goods with regularized prices in the physical and digital world. Payment can be made using digital currency or mobile data exchange to navigate the virtual world longer.

Ordinary User

The digital worker Pepe couldn’t get proper insurance or any other social benefit because he is a gig economy worker. In addition, the company that hired him withholds his earnings, promising to pay him when he completes his training. Without a transparent time regulation, the working conditions are exhausting, compromising Pepe’s physical and mental health. Like Pepe, other people fall prey to this form of human servitude, while other users deal with the paradoxes of technology: in a virtual art store in the metaverse, they only accept cash payments.

Souvenirs from the Future

Pepe eats tamales for breakfast with nootropics and a few illegal drugs as a condiment to better face the long day.

Transformation

Latam in 2032

While social dynamics are replicated — racism, classism, inequality, inequity, abuse of natural resources — new forms of visibility, rights restoration, and reduction of inequality gaps are generated in the digital space. These practices housed in the digital realm also permeate the physical space — new ways of linking ourselves with technology: interactions, affections, educational activities, and health relationships.

Virtual Worlds

There is a single cryptocurrency and financial system for all metaverses. Festivals, hospitals, travel agencies, restaurants, and museums operate efficiently in the metaverse. The metaverse’s pollution is more prominent, and laws regulate it, ensuring high interoperability, adoption, and trust.

Ordinary Life

The inhabitants of the Metaverse are genderless, without defined nationality, and with metadiverse avatars. They represent the resignification of indigenous peoples in virtual worlds. In each virtual world, one is a different entity: diverse professions, ages, and digital corporealities. The same person has multiple virtual lives. The Metaverse is eclectic; like Latin America, it is also accessible to everyone who finds options to work, socialize, and have fun.

Ordinary User

Anne is a student at CENTRO in CDMX. She is 20 years old, environmentally conscious, and socially conscious. After attending the virtual mega-march for people’s rights with Oculus in VR 09T20394, she met with friends to drink and celebrate in a trajinera in Xochimilco.

Souvenir from the Future

A molecular and multicolor drink made with hydrated powders made with raw materials. It can be designed by the person who will consume it. If it is not finished, you can store it. It has a longer shelf life.

Based on the concepts obtained, the workshop participants were invited to a Spark AR session in which they became familiar with this augmented reality tool and performed basic exercises to understand its scope and usefulness. A specific workshop with different devices (not only Spark AR) was considered necessary to optimize the conceptual proposals and design models with the potential to become prototypes.

Since these are speculative design pieces (i.e., design proposals for objects that do not exist and that allow us to understand, with the help of fiction, what could happen in a given scenario), they were not intended to be taken to the final production stage. Still, it was considered valid to carry out a later stage in which they could be digitally sketched and propose different use scenarios.

Conclusions

• The quality of the research phase (inputs) directly affects the quality of the scenarios. Although the participants had graduate degrees and were committed to the process, the research time needed to be increased. Although the initial analysis indicated identifying milestones of the last 20 years, the concentrated events refer to the previous two years due to time constraints.
• Although it was possible to reach the conceptual phase, a creative synthesis workshop will be necessary to develop models and then prototypes of souvenirs of future souvenirs. Some participants expressed interest in taking a subsequent Spark AR workshop to improve their modeling skills; in this regard, the tool’s usefulness for prototyping souvenirs of the future was recognized.
• Concerns related to the intensive use of the technologies that drive the Metaverse refer mainly to physical and mental health problems; legal dilemmas, the black market, and organized crime; the potential vulnerability of users to the highly addictive power of virtual environments; virtual worlds as spaces for militancy and civil demonstration, as well as the possible reproduction of social and economic gaps that could be not only duplicated but amplified in the virtual territory.
• STIRDEEPER is a practical framework for searching and analyzing signals. However, the information obtained needs to be complemented with endogenous milestones, such as interviews with stakeholders in the sector directly related to the development of virtual worlds in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Although this was repeatedly emphasized during the workshop, participants found it difficult to separate signal analysis from forecasting, i.e., to understand that knowing a system’s past and present does not imply greater certainty about the future.
• A conceptual difficulty faced and insisted upon during the working sessions is that although the language of virtual reality and augmented reality is used to communicate the outcome of a prospective process, this does not mean that the desired futures must be virtual. In this sense, the use of these technologies implies a bias that permeates the type of scenarios devised by the participants, so it is proposed to experiment with a new version of the workshop to think about the futures of virtual worlds with analog elements to compare the results with those of virtual worlds.

*The author would like to thank the students, alumni, and professors who contributed to the project:
Emilio Sosa, Daniela López Vallejo, Tania Libertad Mosquera, Andrea Norzagaray, Gabriel Sánchez, Sofia Halgraves, Leandro Medeira,
Ivonne Lonna, Jorge Pasalagua, Rosa Lara, Francesca Vilchis, Eduardo García, Helena Roldán, Adair López, Gabriela Santillán, Daniela Carrasco — Zannini, Guillermo León Ramírez, Karla Silva, Alexander Nempeque, Elsa Oviedo, María Fernanda Loredo, María José Salas.

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